CAES Newswire

 College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences UGA Cooperative Extension
Menu
Published on 09/27/06

El Niño climate pattern returns to Southeast

By Sharon Omahen
University of Georgia

The return of an El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean will make the Georgia, Florida and Alabama weather colder and wetter this fall and winter, says University of Georgia agrometeorologist Joel Paz. But residents of these states will fight fewer hurricanes.

Paz tracks climate patterns as a member of the Southeast Climate Consortium, offering advice on neutral, El Niño and La Niña climate phases. The SECC also includes UGA state climatologist David Stooksbury and his Florida State counterpart David Zierden.

The SECC's fall climate outlook for Georgia, Florida and Alabama is based on an El Niño that has returned for the first time since 2003, said Paz, a UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences faculty member.

Started in July, will last through winter

The condition began in July, when unusually warm sea surface temperatures appeared along the equator around the International Date Line, Paz said. It has since spread all the way to the coast of South America.

Over the past two weeks, Paz said, the spread of unusually warm water has taken on the traditional El Niño pattern.

"It's very likely that the current El Niño will intensify further and last through the winter of 2007," he said.

So how will this El Niño affect the Southeastern climate?

Less hurricanes

"El Niño normally reaches peak intensity and coverage in the winter," Paz said. "The first impact felt in the Southeastern U.S. has been the relatively inactive hurricane season. In spite of predictions to the contrary, 2006 has been a quiet tropical season so far, and many are blaming the developing El Niño."

El Niño is known to create an environment of high shear (winds changing with height) over hurricane formation regions in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, Paz said. This hinders hurricane development.

"With El Niño continuing to grow and the hurricane season more than half over," he said, "we expect below-average activity the remainder of the hurricane season."

The decrease in tropical activity combined with the El Niño will actually bring drier-than-normal weather to Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia in September and October, Paz said. The El Niño is not expected to influence the temperatures during these months.

The climate in the Southeast would be fairly dry in the fall without the impact of a tropical system.

More rain, colder temps

But from November to March, SECC experts say the El Niño may bring more frequent storms, excessive rainfall and cooler temperatures to Florida and coastal Alabama and Georgia.

The increased rainfall and cloudiness associated with El Niño will cause average temperatures to be cooler than normal during the winter, Paz said. However, the El Niño should actually reduce the risk of severe cold outbreaks in the Southeast.

"The cooler temperatures should result in greater chill accumulations over the course of the season," he said. "But the strong subtropical jet stream that is typical of El Niño blocks the intrusions of cold Arctic air masses."

To view detailed SECC climate forecasts, see the consortium's Web site at www.agclimate.org.

Sharon Omahen is a news editor with the University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.

Experts/Sources:
Joel O. Paz
The holiday season can be a time of anticipation and joy, but balancing multiple commitments and personalities across families and friends can be a source of stress for hosts and visitors alike. Like preparing parts of the meal ahead of time to spend more of the holiday with guests, taking time ahead of the day to set expectations can go a long way to ensuring enjoyable gatherings, said Ted Futris, University of Georgia Cooperative Extension specialist and professor of human development and family science in the College of Family and Consumer Sciences. CAES News
Manage holiday stress with kindness, boundaries 11/21/24 Maria M. Lameiras
The holiday season can be a time of anticipation and joy, but balancing multiple commitments and personalities across families and friends can be a source of stress for hosts and visitors alike. Much like preparing parts of the meal ahead of time allows you to spend more of the holiday with guests, setting expectations ahead of the celebration can go a long way to ensuring enjoyable gatherings, said Ted Futris, University of Georgia Cooperative Extension specialist and professor of human development and family science.
Conner Hall CAES News
CAES welcomes 2024 cohort of Rural Scholars 11/20/24 Maria M. Lameiras
The University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences welcomed its fourth cohort of students chosen for the CAES Rural Scholars Program this fall just weeks after celebrating the program's first graduation. Georgia Orman, one of four inaugural Rural Scholars in CAES, graduated in May with a bachelor’s degree in agricultural education. The new scholars for 2024, all from Georgia, are Ela Ash of Ocilla, Lauren E. Coley of Cochran, Amelia Housley of Canon, and London O’Steen of Ambrose.
Women play a vital role in rural American farming, but much of that work is "invisible," like raising children or household chores, according to a new UGA study. (Getty Images) CAES News
The women and stress behind rural farming in America 11/19/24 Leigh Hataway
Recent research from the University of Georgia suggests the unique stresses from farm life may be taking a toll on one of the pillars of the families that make your dinners possible: the women who keep farming families running. “If we don’t control our food sources, we don’t control our health and safety,” said Anna Scheyett, lead author of the study and a professor in UGA’s School of Social Work. “It’s a matter of national security that farmers survive in the United States. And one of the big factors in helping farms survive is women.”
Mergoum at Creature Comforts CAES News
That's the spirit! 11/18/24 Maria M. Lameiras, Claire Sanders Kinnard
Wheat breeders spend years meticulously crossing varieties to coax the best traits out of each species, carefully propagating plant varieties that are healthier, heartier and better suited for the environments where they are grown. Professional brewmasters are equally painstaking when choosing the components that will give their beers a specific flavor profile.
Contest-winning concept becomes viable business for alumnus who developed solar-powered, self-propelled chicken coop as a student. CAES News
Poultry in motion 11/14/24 Sean Montgomery
Chris Ayers emerged from his orange and black rough-terrain vehicle with an ear-to-ear grin. “This is Chiktopia,” he said, sweeping his arm wide to indicate the back half of a 3,600-square-foot warehouse on his family’s farm in Ball Ground, Georgia. “This is where I manufacture and assemble the chicken coops. Everything is done entirely from over here.”
UGA Grand Farm Site Plan web CAES News
UGA Grand Farm wins stage two of 2024 Growth Accelerator Fund competition 11/13/24 Jordan Powers
Startups in the agricultural technology sector face significant barriers on the path to establishment, including access to training and capital. These barriers are heightened for underrepresented entrepreneurs seeking to start new companies. The University of Georgia Grand Farm, part of a historic partnership between the University of Georgia and Fargo, North Dakota-based Grand Farm, aims to change that.