CAES Newswire

 College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences UGA Cooperative Extension
Menu
Published on 02/22/01

Drought Expected to Continue, Likely to Worsen

U.S. Drought Monitor

The drought that has gripped Georgia since May 1998 is expected to continue and will likely worsen during the spring and summer.

Early winter rains gave hope that Georgia's long drought would recede. However, an extremely dry late December through late February has caused drought conditions to intensify statewide.

As of February 20, all locations in Georgia are reporting rainfall deficits for the year. Athens is 3.49 inches below normal, Atlanta 3.78, Augusta 3.78, Columbus 5.46, Macon 4.95, Savannah 3.93 and Tifton 6.18.

These deficits are on top of the 10 to 15 inches below normal values for 2000. Since May 1998, much of the state is more than 30 inches below normal.

Soil Moisture Low

Soil moisture models from the National Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate that soil moisture is very low across the entire state. It's extremely low in the piedmont and the northeast mountain counties.

Streams are at record or near-record low flows for late February. Without substantial rainfall, streamflow conditions won't improve. Groundwater levels also remain at record or near-record low levels for February.

The Georgia Forestry Commission reports that in January 2001 there were 1,297 wildfires, which is 102 percent above normal. These fires affected 4,743 acres, 134 percent above normal.

Prospects Not Good

Prospects for widespread, long-term drought relief are not good. Conditions will probably worsen during the spring and summer. CPC's drought outlook for Georgia is for the drought to continue at least through May.

Based on past climate, March is Georgia's last best chance for relief. With the extremely low deep-soil moisture and groundwater levels, March is too short for major recharge. However, normal rainfall in March will help topsoil moisture and reservoir levels.

In March, soil moisture normally increases with bountiful spring rains and minimal soil moisture loss from evaporation and plant water use.

Spring Rains Badly Needed

By April, soil moisture loss is normally balanced by rainfall. Starting in May, the soil moisture loss from evaporation and plant water use is usually greater than the rainfall. Thus by May, with normal weather, the state's soils will begin to become dryer.

If the soils are dry on April 1, with normal weather, drought conditions will continue and worsen through the spring and summer.

The March-through-May climate outlook from CPC is for an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall statewide except in the extreme northern mountain counties.

Across the extreme north, the outlook is for equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal rainfall. CPC's temperature outlook for March through May is for equal chances of below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal temperatures.

Hotter-than-normal Summer

The June-through-August climate outlook from CPC is for an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures statewide. Above-normal temperatures will increase soil moisture loss through increased evaporation and increased plant water use. CPC's rainfall outlook is for equal chances of below-normal, near-normal and above-normal rainfall across the entire state.

Even with normal rainfall during the summer, Georgia's soils become drier. With the soils already dry, normal weather will just compound the problem. All of this indicates that the drought will continue and likely worsen through the summer.

David Emory Stooksbury is associate professor of Biological and Agricultural Engineering at University of Georgia's College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.

Experts/Sources:
David E. Stooksbury, Ph.D.
SLF2 CAES News
Spotting trouble: How Georgians can help combat spotted lanternfly 12/24/24 Emily Cabrera
Native to several Asian countries, the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) was first detected in the United States in 2014 in Pennsylvania, likely arriving via imported goods. Since its arrival, the pest has spread to 15 states in the Eastern U.S., now including Georgia. While they do not bite or sting humans or animals, University of Georgia experts stress that early detection, prevention strategies and timely interventions are crucial to minimizing the spread and impact of this pest on a variety of plants.
Top research stories of 2024 CAES News
Top UGA research stories of 2024 12/23/24 Olivia Randall
As the new year approaches, it’s time to reflect on 2024, a year full of exciting research achievements at the University of Georgia. UGA researchers have made their marks examining crucial topics like the health of water resources and urban infrastructure in the face of climate change, the causes of higher suicide rates among young Black men, and an alarming trend in rates of Type 2 diabetes, among other groundbreaking work. Let’s take a closer look at 12 of the most impactful stories of the past year.
After a hearty climb, Connect Abroad Italy students pose in front of the Leaning Tower of Pisa. (Photo by Angel Bhardwaj) CAES News
UGA ranks as leading doctoral institution for study abroad 12/20/24 Angel Bhardwaj
The University of Georgia remains among the top 10 U.S. universities for study abroad participation, according to the 2024 Open Doors Report released by the Institute of International Education in partnership with the U.S. Department of State. UGA boasts the highest study abroad participation to enrollment ratio of the top 7 ranked doctoral institutions, earning the No. 7 spot in overall participation and No. 3 in short-term study abroad programs.
HurricaneHeleneGreenhouseDamageCropped CAES News
UGA Extension supports resilience in Georgia farm communities after Hurricane Helene 12/19/24 Emily Cabrera
Hurricane Helene wrought sweeping devastation across Georgia’s agricultural sector in late September, leaving an indelible mark on both the land and the people who tend it, bringing focus to vulnerabilities in Georgia’s farming industry and the need for more robust safety nets. In addition to the physical destruction, the hurricane took an emotional toll on Georgia’s farmers. In response, UGA Extension has prioritized mental health support.
From left, CAES Associate Professor Abigail Borron and Fulbright Romanian-American Foundation Scholars Mihai Suteu, Daniyar Memedemin, Alina Zaharia, Andreea Ona and Daniel Chiciudean stand in front of an image of the Romanian flag projected onto a barn at UGArden. CAES News
Fulbright Scholars unite with UGA Extension to envision ag outreach model in Romania 12/18/24 Maria M. Lameiras
Arriving on the Athens campus of the University of Georgia in August 2023, five Romanian scholars experienced the same anticipation, excitement and apprehension as many first-year students.  Chosen as Fulbright Romanian-American Foundation Scholars, each serves on the faculty at one of three Romanian universities, specializing in fields from economics and engineering to plant breeding and biotechnology. The five scholars comprised the first cohort of the Romanian Extension Education Development Program, an ambitious three-year pilot effort to facilitate planning and implementation of extension services in Romania. 
Janiver in sunflower field AI web CAES News
A larger-than-life legacy: CAES student’s contagious enthusiasm inspired others 12/17/24 Jordan Powers
When Miriam Edelkind-Vealey applied for a summer role at a University of Georgia pollinator biodiversity lab in 2020, the junior undergrad didn’t quite know what to expect. After being told she got the position, Edelkind-Vealy didn’t hear anything for a few weeks. It was only then that she learned a collaborator on the project, second-year master’s degree student Amy Joy Janvier, had passed away.